Spot (current for next day) electricity prices in France in January/February 2023 averaged at €139.5/MWh base load and €163.9/MWh peak load, decreasing compared to January/February 2022 prices, which were €199.3/MWh base load and €230.6/MWh peak load. This decrease is explained in particular by the mild weather in January, which pulled down the average spot price in a context of higher solar and wind production. In addition, these prices are in line with gas and coal prices despite a slight increase in the average price of CO2. At the end of February 2023, the prices of French yearly contracts for base load and peak load delivery in 2024 were €117.5/MWh and €241.3/MWh respectively. A year earlier, forward electricity prices for delivery in France in 2023 closed at a base load price of €176.9/MWh and a peak load delivery of €294.8/MWh. This decrease in prices is mainly due to the rise in gas, coal and CO2 prices.
In January-February 2023, spot gas prices on the French market averaged €54.6/ MWh, down by €25.9/MWh compared to the same period in 2022. This decrease is explained in particular by a less tense supply-demand balance in Europe during the winter. Indeed, Asian demand linked to the economic recovery has remained subdued compared to the same period last year and Europe continues to attract more LNG cargoes to its shores. European stocks, well above average levels at the beginning of January, remain above the maximum levels observed over the period 2011-2022, allowing the markets to be reassured as the winter period is already well underway.
At the end of February 2023, the price of Brent was $89.9/bbl, down by $11.1/bbl compared with the end of February 2022. In a market context that has remained relatively tense, prices have fallen compared to the previous year, which may be associated with a contraction in demand. Indeed, despite the G7 embargo on
Russian crude oil and refined products, which came into effect at the end of 2022, galloping inflation and the rise in central bank interest rates during 2022 still raise fears of a global recession, even if China is recovering from the impact of the Covid- 19 epidemic on its territory after relaxing sanitary constraints. On the demand side, OPEC's monthly report forecasts a marginal increase in oil demand to 803 million barrels (+2.1%) between 2022 and 2023, stable compared to the previous month's estimates and confirming the global uncertainty on the outlook.
The price of coal for delivery in Europe in 2024 ended February 2023 at $154.2/t, down by $61.7/t compared to the 2023 contract closed at the end of February 2022. After a surge in the price of coal in 2022, mainly due to the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, the price has been on a downward trend. The European embargo on Russian coal required the diversification of supply sources, which led to an upward trend in the price in 2022. However, Europe has managed to replenish its stocks to record levels, which has helped to ease the price. At the beginning of 2023, the winter period was much milder than expected, limiting consumption, and with supply remaining robust, prices continued their decline that began after the summer of 2022.
The price of the CO2 emission certificate for delivery in December 2023 closed the month of February 2023 at €99.8/t, up by €17.6/t compared to the closing price in February 2022 for delivery in December 2022. The price of the CO2 emission is close to its historical high reached in August 2022. The price is supported by the prospects for the use of fossil-fired power plants, the positioning of speculative players and the approval by the European Parliament of the raising of €20 billion through the sale of CO2 allowances as part of the Repower EU plan to break away from energy dependence on Russia.
