Universal Registration Document 2022

Introduction

3.1.3.2.2.2 Transition risks and opportunities for the EDF group
Risk category Description Potential impact for the EDF group
Legal risks

Legal risks

Description

Climate-related litigation

Legal risks

Potential impact for the EDF group

Risk of cancellation of licences, risk of litigation following exceptional climatic events, risk of litigation related to the EDF group publications, particularly as regards the duty of vigilance.

Political and regulatory risks

Political and regulatory risks

Description

Tension over uses of water

Political and regulatory risks

Potential impact for the EDF group

Risk involved in the sharing of water resources due to multiple uses and multiple stakeholders in a context of increasing water scarcity.

Risk category

Tension over access to land and use of soils

Description

Risk involved in the necessary land resources for renewable energy due to regulation (biodiversity, agricultural lands) and the legitimacy of sharing with numerous stakeholders.

Risk category

Political difficulties to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement

Description

Opportunity: as a low-carbon leader*, the EDF group is called on to play a key role in decarbonisation of the European economy.

Customer – market risks

Customer – market risks

Description

Change in customer expectations

Customer – market risks

Potential impact for the EDF group

Opportunity: increased demands of own consumption, energy efficiency, electric mobility, green deals and low carbon.

Risk category

Change in uses of electricity

Description

Opportunity: decarbonised electricity is recognised as an indispensable means to decarbonise the economy.

Technological risks

Technological risks

Description

Stability and security of electricity networks

Technological risks

Potential impact for the EDF group

Risk/Opportunity: risk of instability to the system in case of a high penetration rate of renewable energies; key role of nuclear energy usable together with renewable energies to ensure stability of the network.

Risk category

Transition technologies

Description

Risk/Opportunity: potential emergence of technologies such as CCSU, thermal solar, small modular reactors, storage or in the area of negative emissions.

Financial risks

Financial risks

Description

Access to competitive financing

Financial risks

Potential impact for the EDF group

Risk/Opportunity: risk of non-alignment of investors with the 1.5°C criteria. Opportunity to provide the EDF group with sustainable financing (Green Bonds, positive incentive loans).

Risk category

Stranded assets

Description

Risk of stranded thermal assets after regulatory changes or carbon price increases.

* See section 3.1.1 “Group carbon trajectory”.

3.1.3.2.3 Climate risk and opportunity scenario analysis
3.1.3.2.3.1 Physical risk scenarios

To quantitatively assess the physical risks of climate change (chronic and acute), the EDF group uses scenarios developed by the IPCC. This refers mainly to RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios from the fifth evaluation report, which are progressively being updated using SSP-RCP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios from the sixth evaluation report. These scenarios are based on values of radiative forcing due to combined greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols by 2100, as well as changes in land use: the higher the radiative forcing, the more energy enters the earth-atmosphere system, which warms and changes as a result. Only the most ambitious scenarios for greenhouse gas emission reductions (SSP1-2.6 and SSP1-1.9) give a better than 50% probability of limiting the rise in global mean temperatures by the end of the century to less than 2°C and 1.5°C (respectively) more than during the pre-industrial era. The trending scenario (SSP5-8.5) shows a more than 50% likelihood of an increase in excess of 4°C by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era.

This graph shows the climate risk and opportunity scenario analysis.

Transition risks have shorter time horizon than physical risks

1950: approximately 0.2⁰C

2000: approximately 0.8⁰C

2015: approximately 1.1⁰C

By 2050, the variability of scenarios in terms of physical risks is low

SSP5-8.5: approximately 2.1⁰C

SSP3-7.0: approximately 1.9⁰C

SSP2-4.5: approximately 1.8⁰C

SSP1-2.6: approximately 1.7⁰C

SSP1-1.9: approximately 1.5⁰C

2100 :

SSP5-8.5: approximately 4.7⁰C

SSP3-7.0: approximately 3.9⁰C

SSP2-4.5: approximately 2.8⁰C

SSP1-2.6: approximately 1.7⁰C

SSP1-1.9: approximately 1.5⁰C