Oil prices were up by +64.0% compared to 2020 as demand rose significantly all over the world, driven by the resumption of normal economic activity and introduction of recovery plans in the United States and Europe. The rise in oil prices was limited by the OPEP+ countries’ adjustment of production to the IEA (1)’s forecast worldwide demand.
The annual gas contract price for next-year delivery in the PEG zone increased by +131.8%. Lower temperatures in the spring brought gas stocks down in Europe. In Asia, more extreme temperatures led to high gas consumption for heating and air conditioning. China imported more gas in a politically tense situation that drove it to halt imports of Australian coal. Uncertainties over gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine, or via NordStream 2, stoked tensions on the European market. Competition between European and Asian markets to attract LNG cargo ships also contributed to upward price trends. Finally, gas prices shot up in the early winter in response to announcements by the Russian President and geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe.
This graph shows the evolution of natural gas and oil prices.
Brent prices in US$/bbl
January 2020: approximately $69/bbl
March 2020: approximately $25/bbl
May 2020: approximately $30/bbl
July 2020: approximately $42/bbl
September 2020: approximately $45/bbl
November 2020: approximately $43/bbl
December 2020: approximately $47/bbl
January 2021: approximately $55/bbl
March 2021: approximately $64/bbl
May 2021: approximately $62/bbl
July 2021: approximately $65/bbl
September 2021: approximately $75/bbl
November 2021: approximately $82/bbl
December 2021: approximately $85/bbl
Natural gas -Gas year ahead PEG Nord contract in €/MWhg (Powernext)
January 2020: approximately €20/MWhg
March 2020: approximately €18/MWhg
May 2020: approximately €17/MWhg
July 2020: approximately €18/MWhg
September 2020: approximately €19/MWhg
November 2020: approximately €19/MWhg
December 2020: approximately € 19/MWhg
January 2021: approximately €20/MWhg
March 2021: approximately €21/MWhg
May 2021: approximately €22/MWhg
July 2021: approximately €38/MWhg
September 2021: approximately €42/MWhg
November 2021: approximately €42/MWhg
December 2021: approximately €45/MWhg
Electricity consumption in France in 2021 showed a significant increase of 21.6TWh or +4.8% compared to 2020. This increase was mainly due to a weather effect (lower temperatures) of +15TWh, and the economic recovery after the Covid- 19 pandemic (+6TWh). However, as 2020 was a leap year, there was a negative effect of 1.4TWh due to 2021 having one day less.
Gas consumption in France rose by 27.3TWh compared to 2020. This rise was principally driven by an increase in demand, except in the third quarter when it declined by 8.8TWh, as average temperatures in the second quarter were 0.3°C below normal and had pushed demand up by 21.7TWh. Also, episode of cold weather (in mid-February and the first fortnight of April) led to peaks in household consumption, while gas consumption by industrial sites was relatively stable.
Electricity consumption in the United Kingdom increased by 3% compared to 2020, mainly as a result of the economic recovery in 2021 after 2020 was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Gas consumption in the United Kingdom also increased, by 5% compared to 2020, due to lower temperatures.
Electricity consumption in Italy (2) totalled 319.4TWh in 2021, up by 5.5% from 2020, essentially due to resumption of business activity after the Covid-19 crisis of 2020. This rise in demand was addressed by using thermal and wind power plants (especially in the final quarter when wind conditions were favourable). Net imports returned to their pre-pandemic level at 42.8TWh, an increase of 32.9% compared to 2020.
Domestic demand for natural gas in Italy (3) totalled 76.2bcm, 7.8% higher than in 2020, confirming the general resumption of economic activity after Covid- related restrictions were lifted. All segments registered an increase, with a particularly big rise in residential consumption (+10.2% compared to 2020), due to a colder winter in 2021 than in 2020.
(1) International Energy Agency.
(2) Source of data for Italy: unadjusted data and data provided by Terna, the Italian national grid operator, and adjusted by Edison.
(3) Sources of data for Italy: Ministry for Economic Development (MSE), Snam Rete Gas data adjusted by Edison on the basis of 1Bcm = 10.76TWh.