5.1.2.1.3 CO2 emission quota prices(1)
The price of emissions certificates for delivery in December Y+1 stood at an average €54.0/t in 2021 (+115.0% or +€28.9/t vs 2020). The CO2 quota price followed a robust upward trend throughout the year 2021.
CO2 emission quota prices began the year in a favourable political environment, after the announcement in January that the United States would rejoin the Paris Agreement. Then on 14 July the European Union presented its proposals to cut EU greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, rather than the initial 40% target. Late in the year, the German government’s proposal to set a minimum carbon price reinforced the upward price trend.
As well as these developments, temperatures were lower than normal in April and greater use of fossil-fired power plants was necessary. From the third quarter onwards, gas prices soared among fears over the levels of European stocks, and this pushed up the output by coal-fired generation.
Finally, prices fluctuated with speculative position-taking, which also contributed to higher volatility in CO2 quotas.
CO2 emission quota prices in €/t for next-year deliveries in December (ICE)
This graph shows the evolution of the price of CO2 allowances in €/t for next-year deliveries in December (ICE)
CO2 - delivery in €/t in December of year N+1 (ICE)
January 2020: approximately 25 €/t
March 2020: approximately 15 €/t
May 2020: approximately 19 €/t
July 2020: approximately 29 €/t
September 2020: approximately 28 €/t
November 2020: approximately 25 €/t
December 2020: approximately 27 €/t
January 2021: approximately 35 €/t
March 2021: approximately 39 €/t
May 2021: approximately 45 €/t
July 2021: approximately 42 €/t
September 2021: approximately 58 €/t
November 2021: approximately 62 €/t
December 2021: approximately 89 €/t
5.1.2.1.4 Fossil fuel prices (2)
| Coal(US$/t) | Oil (US$/bbl) | Natural gas (€/MWhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average price for 2021 | Average price for 2021 Coal(US$/t)94.6 |
Average price for 2021 Oil (US$/bbl)70.9 |
Average price for 2021 Natural gas (€/MWhg)30.2 |
| Average price variation, 2021/2020 | Average price variation, 2021/2020 Coal(US$/t)+ 63.2% |
Average price variation, 2021/2020 Oil (US$/bbl)+ 64.0% |
Average price variation, 2021/2020 Natural gas (€/MWhg)+ 131.8% |
| Highest price in 2021 | Highest price in 2021 Coal(US$/t)184.0 |
Highest price in 2021 Oil (US$/bbl)86.4 |
Highest price in 2021 Natural gas (€/MWhg)140.3 |
| Lowest price in 2021 | Lowest price in 2021 Coal(US$/t)64.2 |
Lowest price in 2021 Oil (US$/bbl)51.1 |
Lowest price in 2021 Natural gas (€/MWhg)15.8 |
| Price at 31 December 2021 | Price at 31 December 2021 Coal(US$/t)99.3 |
Price at 31 December 2021 Oil (US$/bbl)77.78 |
Price at 31 December 2021 Natural gas (€/MWhg)50.0 |
| Price at 31 December 2020 | Price at 31 December 2020 Coal(US$/t)68.85 |
Price at 31 December 2020 Oil (US$/bbl)51.8 |
Price at 31 December 2020 Natural gas (€/MWhg)16.4 |
Coal prices for next-year delivery in Europe rose by +63.2% compared to 2020. In China, imports and higher production were not enough to cope with the increase in demand. Then gas prices soared, and coal-fired energy plants became competitive in a long-term perspective. In Europe, waves of cold weather drove countries to rebuild their coal stocks. Finally, some coal-producing countries (Colombia, Russia, South Africa, Australia, Indonesia) had production problems due to social contests and unfavourable weather conditions.
(1) Average ICE prices for the annual contract, Phase III (2013-2020) and Phase IV (2021-2030).
(2) Coal: average ICE prices for delivery in Europe (CIF ARA) for the next calendar year (US$/t);
Oil: ICE price for Brent crude oil barrel (front month) (US$/barrel);
Natural gas: average ICE OTC prices, for delivery starting from October of the following year in France (PEG Nord – €/MWhg).