5.1.2.1.2 Forward electricity prices in Europe (1)
| France | United Kingdom | Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh) | Average forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)France95.5 |
Average forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)United Kingdom96.0 |
Average forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)Italy96.9 |
Average forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)Belgium86.0 |
| Variation in average forward baseload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 | Variation in average forward baseload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 France+ 112.8% |
Variation in average forward baseload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 United Kingdom+ 98.6% |
Variation in average forward baseload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 Italy+ 97.2% |
Variation in average forward baseload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 Belgium+ 111.4% |
| Forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh) | Forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)France249.54 (1) |
Forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)United Kingdom174.96 |
Forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)Italy169.33 |
Forward baseload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)Belgium159.96 |
| Average forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh) | Average forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)France122.5 |
Average forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)United Kingdom110.7 |
Average forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)Italy106.4 |
Average forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract in 2021 (€/MWh)Belgium102.8 |
| Variation in average forward peakload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 | Variation in average forward peakload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 France+ 111.7% |
Variation in average forward peakload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 United Kingdom+ 102.3% |
Variation in average forward peakload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 Italy+ 92.4% |
Variation in average forward peakload price under the annual contracts, 2021/2020 Belgium+ 98.2% |
| Forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh) | Forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)France330.0 (2) |
Forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)United Kingdom211.15 |
Forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)Italy198.73 |
Forward peakload price under the 2022 annual contract at 31 December 2021 (€/MWh)Belgium197.93 |
(1) Final quoted price of the year for Cal+1 baseload, France, 29/12/2021.
(2) Final quoted price of the year for Cal+1 peakload, France 29/12/2021.
Average annual contract prices for baseload and peakload electricity showed a substantial increase all over Europe between 2020 and 2021, due to the rise in commodity prices (for gas, coal and CO2).
In France, the average annual contract baseload price for next-year delivery rose steadily over the whole year before a sharp increase in December, when it reached the monthly average of €256.5/MWh. A major factor in this rise was the very substantial increase in prices on the gas market, and to a lesser degree, CO2 and coal prices, particularly in the second half of the year. This trend amplified in the last weeks of December due to anticipations of tension on the supply-demand balance following announcements of unavailability at certain nuclear plants. Electricity prices for next-year delivery thus reached record levels, peaking at €407.5/MWh on 22 December.
In the United Kingdom, the April Ahead contract baseload price for 1 April Y+1 to 31 March Y+2 increased by 98.6%. This price rose throughout the year and showed a leap in December following the increase in commodity prices.
In Italy, the +97.2% increase in the annual contract baseload price for next-year delivery reflects the rise in commodity prices. CO2 prices remained volatile and followed an upward trend that affected electricity prices due to the high gas component in the Italian electricity mix.
In Belgium, the 111.4% increase in the annual contract baseload price for next- year delivery was particularly pronounced in the fourth quarter, due to the rise in commodity prices.
Principal forward electricity prices in Europe (baseload year ahead), in €/MWh
This graph shows us the evolution of the main European baseload electricity futures contracts (n+1) in €/MWh (France, Italy and United Kingdom).
Between January 2020 and November 2020: the level of the curves is around €50/MWh.
Between December 2020 and July 2021, the curves follow an upward slope between around €50/MWh and €80/MWh.
From August the curves become steeper with a peak reached between September and October 2021 at around €170/MWh.
The curves then briefly drop to €130/MWh in October 2021 and then rise very sharply at the end of the year.
The records reached amount to approximately €400/MWh for the France contract, €320/MWh for the Italy contract and €250/MWh for the United Kingdom contract.
(1) France and Germany: average year-ahead EEX price;
Belgium and Italy: average year-ahead EDF Trading price;
United Kingdom: average ICE annual contract prices, April 2021 then April 2022 (in the UK, annual contract deliveries take place from 1 April to 31 March).