There were no post balance sheet events other than those discussed in the other sections of the Universal Registration Document.
Spot (current for next day) electricity prices in France in January/February 2021 averaged at €54.5/MWh base load and €66.1/MWh peak load, rising strongly compared to January/February 2020 prices, which were €32.3/MWh base load and €39.5/MWh peak load. This increase can be explained by a simultaneous increase in consumption of 3.4TWh due to below-normal temperatures this year (-1.9°C in average over this period compared to 2020). Also to blame are higher coal and gas prices, CO2 price, as well as lower wind power generation compared to January/February 2020. For the same reasons, German spot prices have rose strongly, not least due to an ever stronger decrease in solar and wind power generation (inGermany, -13.7TWh in total for the January/February period, compared to the same period last year). These prices averaged at €50.9/MWh base load and €61.7/MWh peak load, up by €22.2/MWh and €23.5/MWh respectively from January/February 2020.
At the end of February 2021, the prices of French yearly contracts for base load and peak load delivery in 2021 were €53.4/MWh and €66.8/MWh respectively. A year earlier, forward electricity prices for delivery in France in 2021 closed at a base load price of €42.0/MWh and a peak demand price of €52.7/MWh. This rise in prices is mainly due to the rise in gas, coal and CO2 prices.
In January/February 2021, spot gas prices on the French market averaged at €19.1/MWh, up by €8.8/MWh compared to the same period in 2020. This increase reflects a particularly “strained” supply-demand balance in Europe. LNG arrivals in Europe are down, as cargoes have favoured the Asian market where prices were much more attractive. The recovery in Asian demand was indeed confirmed, supported by very low temperatures in January. European stocks, slightly above average levels at the beginning of January, continued to fall and were below normal levels for the season at the end of February. In France, consumption, which was up compared to the same period in 2020, was nevertheless slightly below average.
At the end of February 2021, the price of Brent was $66.1/bbl, up $15.6/bbl compared with the end of February 2020. From the beginning of 2020, the Covid pandemic began to weigh on Chinese and then global demand for oil, driving down the price per barrel. This downward effect of the pandemic on demand was confirmed throughout the year, with an direct impact on mobility (lock-downs, travel restrictions) as well as a dramatic impact on the economy (demand for trade and industry). To support prices in the face of this collapsed demand, OPEC+ worked to reduce supply, with the conclusion on 12 April of an agreement withdrawing up to 9.7mb/d of production. This agreement, reached in a context of tension after a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, was continued and renegotiated throughout the year in line with expectations of a recovery in demand. At the end of 2020 and in the beginning of 2021, the price moved upwards, erasing all the decline accumulated over the course of 2020, stimulated by the election of Joe Biden and the progress of vaccination campaigns.
The price of coal for delivery in Europe in 2022 ended February 2021 at $68.7/t, up by $11.7/t compared to the 2021 contract closed at the end of February 2020. The downwards trend of 2019 initially continued during the first half of 2020, driven by gloomy forward demand forecasts around the world, and very high stock levels across Europe. Coal demand, already weakened by competition from gas and the economics lowdown, has been hit hard by lock-down measures and their impact on growth. However, supply was also reduced, notably by social conflicts or cyclones, which kept prices between $55/t and $60/t throughout the third quarter of 2020. In the last quarter, the marked recovery in Asian demand, in particular China’s imports fromRussia and South Africa, led to a sharp rise in prices. The rise continued into early2021, reinforced by cold temperatures in Asia.
The price of the CO2 emission certificate for delivery in December 2021 closed the month of February 2021 at €37.3/t, up by €13.7/t compared to the closing price in February 2020 for delivery in December 2020. The price has fluctuated greatly during 2020, between the effects of the Covid pandemic and the negotiations on the European Union’s climate goals for 2030, which are widely interpreted and followed by speculative players on this market. The price thus collapsed in March, losing €8.4/t in one week when the lock-down measures were spreading in Europe. From April onwards, the price reacted positively to announcements of economic stimulus measures and environmental policy signals, exceeding €30/t twice, in June and September. At the end of the year, announcements on vaccines and the vote to raise the EU’s 2030 emission reduction targets to 55% continued to push up the allowance price. At the beginning of 2021, the progress of vaccination campaigns and the publication of analyses suggesting a possible sharp rise in prices by the end of the year continued to drive up the quota price, which even briefly exceeded €40/t in mid-February for the first time in its history.
Subject to additional reinforced sanitary restrictions impacts.
The French State committed to opt for a scrip dividend payment for 2021 fiscal year.
(1) Subject to additional reinforced sanitary restrictions impacts.
(2) On the basis of scope and exchange rates at 01/01/2021.
(3) Subject to additional reinforced sanitary restrictions impacts.
(4) Sum of personnel expenses and other external expenses. At constant scope, standards, exchange rates and pension discount rate; excluding inflation. Excluding the cost ofsales of energy services and Framatome’s nuclear engineering services and specific projects such as Jaitapur.
(5) Signed or completed disposals: impact on the Group’s economic debt reduction.
(6) Payout ratio based on net income excluding non-recurring items, adjusted for the remuneration of hybrid bonds accounted for in equity.
