Meeting these targets remain dependent on many factors, in particular the investigations conducted by the ASN, notably regarding the procedures envisaged by EDF for dealing with the welds in the main secondary system. The postponement of the ASN’s approval of the process for repairing crossing welds using remotely operated robots until the first quarter of 2021 poses an additional risk to the project’s completion cost and schedule.
The risk relating to the schedule and completion cost is therefore very high and the project could face other potentially significant additional costs and delays in the event of new contingencies, in particular in the event that it ultimately proved necessary to halt the crossing weld repairs (EDF does not consider this to be a preferred scenario).
The construction cost to completion of €12.4 billion is expressed in 2015 euros and does not include interim financial interest. As this is a construction cost, it also does not include other elements necessary for the project such as spare parts for the subsequent operation of the plant, or the cost for replacing the vessel. The amount of interim interest as shown in the financial statements at the end of December 2020amounts to €3,291 million. The additional costs compared to the previous estimate of €1.5 billion 2015 are mainly recognised in other operating income and expenses(1) and not in investments. For 2020, these additional costs recorded in other operating income and expenses amounted to €397 million.
Furthermore, these amounts correspond to costs incurred as of 31 December 2020, and not to costs anticipated to be incurred as at the fuel loading date scheduled for the end of 2022.
Studies for the EPR 2 Project are underway in order to propose a competitive reactor with a view to partially renewing the existing nuclear fleet. Failure to meet the competitiveness target, the absence of an appropriate regulatory framework or the failure to obtain, or delays in obtaining, the necessary permits to continue the reactor’s development could have an impact on the Group’s financial position (see section 1.4.1.1.3.2 “Other "New Nuclear" projects).
On 25 January 2019, the French government published the main guidelines of the Multi-year Energy Programme adopted by a decree of 21 April 2020. In accordance with these directions, the government has asked EDF to prepare a comprehensive file with the nuclear industry by mid-2021 relating to a programme of renewal of nuclear facilities in France. The sector contract signed on 28 January 2019 by the French government and the Nuclear Sector Strategic Committee (CSFN) contains a section on the preparation of the industrial capacity necessary for the performance of a programme of construction of new reactors in France. In order to keep in line with this initiative, EDF has started to prepare economic and industrial proposals based on the EPR2 technology. EDF will provide the information to enable the French government to define an appropriate regulatory framework for the financing of such an industrial programme.
On 8 December 2020, the French President stated that “the final decision on the construction of new reactors must be taken by 2023 at the latest, once the Flamanville EPR has been commissioned”. Further delays in the commissioning of the Flamanville 3 EPR, a further postponement of the decision or a decision not to build these reactors could impact the Group’s financial situation.
In China, the Group has a 30% stake in TNPJVC (Taishan Nuclear Power JointVenture Company Limited) alongside its Chinese partner CGN and GuangdongEnergy Group (19%). Taishan 1 and Guangdong Energy Group (19%) was the firstEPR reactor to be coupled to the grid on 29 June 2018. It was commissioned on13 December 2018. The Taishan 2 reactor became commercially operational on7 September 2019 (see section 1.4.1.1.3.2). The feed-in tariff for the electricity generated by Taishan has been set at RMB435/MWh (approximately €56/MWh) for at least 7,500 operating hours per year per reactor, with any surplus being sold at market price. The tariff is lower than expected by EDF. Taishan depends on the state-owned grid operator China Southern Power Grid for regulation between the different generation units. The first tariff and capacity call conditions, which are very important for the economic performance of the plant, are in force until the end of2021. Together with CGN, efforts are continuing with the relevant Chinese authorities, who will determine the new tariff conditions. The profitability of the asset is also subject to the risk of changes in the volume of sales at this tariff, against a background of development in the electricity market.
In the UK, the new environment created by implementation of the Brexit (see section 1.4.5.1.2.4) may lead to a change in the implementation and profitability conditions of projects and to reassessing or even discouraging investors associated with the Group’s future projects in the United Kingdom or Europe. The agreement of 24 December 2020 could generate disruptions impacting ongoing projects. However, the Group’ preparations for this new situation could limit its exposure to this risk as well as limit the extent of any impact (see section 1.4.5.1.3).
Control of the design and bringing the manufacturing and the major milestones of the Hinkley Point C construction site under control will determine the profitability of the project and the financing of any future projects in the United Kingdom. The Group has a 66.5% stake in the Hinkley Point C Project, alongside its Chinese partner CGN with 33.5% (see sections 1.4.1.1.3.2 “Other "New Nuclear" projects” and section 1.4.5.1.2.5 “Nuclear New Build Business”).
In June 2019, the HPC project achieved milestone D-0 (completion of the Unit 1 Nuclear Island Riser) as planned. The Unit 2 Riser was completed in line with the targets in June 2020.
A detailed review of schedule and cost was concluded at the end of January 2021 to estimate the impact of the pandemic so far. This review has concluded the following(2) :Une revue détaillée du calendrier et des coûts a été finalisée fin janvier 2021 afin de mesurer les impacts de la pandémie à ce jour. Cette revue présente les conclusions suivantes(2) :
The agreements between EDF and CGN include a capped compensation mechanism between both shareholders in case of cost overruns or delays. Given the expected level of completion costs, this mechanism is applicable and will be triggered when the time comes. EDF’s published IRR takes this compensation(6) mechanism into account. These agreements are part of a Shareholders’ Bilateral agreement signed between EDF and CGN in September 2016 and are subject to a confidentiality clause.
(1) IAS 16 paragraph 22 on abnormal costs incurred in connection with assets constructed by the Company. These costs will affect the years 2020, 2021, and 2022.
(2)Assuming the ability to begin a ramp up back to normal site conditions from the second quarter of 2021. Please refer to the Press release of 27 January 2021 “Hinkley Point C project update”.
(3) Reminder on the costs previously announced in the Press release of 25 September 2019: £201521.5 – 22.5 billion. Costs net of operational action plans, in 2015 sterling, excluding interim interest and excluding forex effect versus the reference exchange rate for the project of £1 = €1.23. Costs calculated on 27 January 2021 (see press release“Hinkley Point C project update”) by deflating estimated costs in nominal terms using the British Construction OPI for All New Work index.
(4) EDF equity IRR calculated at the exchange rate of £1 = €1.13 and including the capped compensation mechanism in place between the project’s shareholders. Previous IRR of7.6% - 7.8% was based on an exchange rate of £1 = €1.15 .
(5) Beyond the cost and construction time objectives, this IRR for EDF includes other structuring assumptions. In particular, it is sensitive to inflation rate assumptions and electricity price assumptions after the CfD period: a 0.1 point change in inflation has an impact of 0.1% on the IRR, a change in electricity prices of £201510/MWh has an impact of 0.1% on the IRR.
(6) EDF equity IRR calculated at the exchange rate of £1 = €1.13 and including the capped compensation mechanism in place between the project’s shareholders. Previous IRR of7.6% - 7.8% was based on an exchange rate of £1 = €1.15
