There were no post-closing events other than those presented in the other sections of the Universal Registration Document.
Spot (current for next day) electricity prices in France in January/February 2020 averaged at €32.3/MWh base load and €39.5/MWh peak load, down sharply from January/February 2019 prices. The prices for January 2019 were €54.3/MWh base load and €62.6/MWh peak load. This decrease can be explained by a decrease in consumption of 5.9TWh due to above-normal temperatures this year (+2.1° C), whereas they were close to normal last year. Also to blame are lower coal and gas prices as well as higher wind and hydropower generation compared to January/February 2019. For the same reasons, German spot prices have fallen sharply for January/February 2020. These prices averaged at €28.7/MWh base load and €38.2/MWh peak load, down by €17.6/MWh and €17.2/MWh respectively from January/February 2019. It should be noted that German wind power generation in February 2020 exceeded 20TWh, exceeding the previous monthly record by 4TWh.
At the end of February 2020, the prices of French yearly contracts for base load andpeak load delivery in 2021 were €42.0/MWh and €52.7/MWh respectively. A yearearlier, forward electricity prices for delivery in France in 2020 closed at a base loadprice of € 51.3/MWh and a peak demand price of € 66.2/MWh. This fall in prices ismainly due to the fall in gas and coal prices.
In January/February 2020, spot gas prices on the French market averaged at€10.2/MWh. This sharp drop (€10.0/MWh lower than averageJanuary/February 2019 prices) reflects a particularly “slack” supply-demand balancein Europe. Despite an increase in the production of combined-cycle gas powerplants due to their greater competitiveness compared to coal, European inventoriesremain at historically high levels due to mild temperatures and massive LNG arrivalsin Europe. The latter are due to an increase in world supply, particularly in theUnited States, while growth in Asian LNG demand continues to slow down.
At the end of February 2020, the price of Brent was $50.5/bbl, down $15.5/bbl compared with the end of February 2019. After rising almost continuously until May 2019, the price was mainly driven down by the prospect of abundant supply and sluggish demand, prompting the market to watch for signs of strength, particularly in light of the progress of the Sino-US trade agreement. While US shale oil production continued to grow throughout the year, OPEC and Russia confirmed their willingness to support prices by reducing production during the peaks of 1 July and 6 December. There have been some occasional price spikes during incidents in the Middle East. Nevertheless, and despite the signing of phase 1 of the Sino-American trade agreement on 15 January 2020, barrel prices fell again throughout the beginning of 2020, weighed down by the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic and its impact on growth and oil demand.
The price of coal for delivery in Europe in 2021 ended February 2020 at $57.0/t, down by $23.7/t compared to the 2020 contract closed at the end of February 2019. With the exception of a few episodes of increase linked to reduced production at the extraction mines (strikes, collapses, increased controls, flooding or environmental protests), the price of coal fell steadily over the year 2019 and then in the beginning of the year 2020. The high price of CO2 coupled with the low price of gas has favoured the use of gas for power generation in 2019. Electricity generation from medium coal thus fell by almost 27% in Europe in 2019 compared to 2018. In early January 2020, the price rose when heavy rains made coal mining in South Africa difficult and Indonesia announced a 10% reduction in its exports in 2020. However, the downward trend resumed in mid-January, mainly as a result of the Coronavirus epidemic and the declining growth prospects. Since the Coronavirus epidemic also has an impact on domestic production of Chinese coal, it has had a one-off upward impact on the price, for example in early February.
The price of the CO2 emission certificate for delivery in December 2020 closed the month of February at €23.6/t. It stood at 22.1 €/t at the end of February 2019 for delivery in December 2019. The CO2 price was affected throughout 2019 by various announcements concerning the closure of German coal-fired power plants and the possible cancellation of the corresponding quotas. Developments with Brexit also played a dominant role in the price, generating considerable uncertainty about the future of the UK players’ obligations in the EU-ETS system. In this uncertain context, the 2019 UK allowance auctions had been suspended. After the Brexit vote in December, noting that the British would participate in the 2020 withdrawal, the market therefore monitored the announcements in the beginning of 2020 regarding the auctioning of these allowances, concerned about the consequences of a sudden influx of allowances in the event of time-concentrated volume auctioning. Prices finished on a downward trend at the end of February, weakened by the growth impact of the coronavirus epidemic.
(1) On the basis of the scope and exchange rates as of 01/01/2020 and assumptions for nuclear generation in France ranging from 375TWh to 390TWh for 2020.
(2) Sum of personnel expenses and other external expenses. At comparable scope, standards and exchange rates. At constant pension discount rate. Excluding change in operating expenses for service activities.
(3) The objective includes exercising the put option on CENG securities in 2020. Completion of the transaction is likely to be deferred to 2021 depending on the timetable for obtaining regulatory approvals.
(4) With the French State committed to opting for a share-based payment for the balance of 2019 and for 2020.
(5) Adjusted for the remuneration of hybrid bonds accounted for in equity.
