5.1.2.1.3 CO2 emission rights prices(1)
The price of CO2 emission rights for delivery in December Y+1 ended the year at €24.6/t, down by €0.4/t compared to December 2018. Quota prices declined substantially in the early part of the year, falling to €19.2/t in mid-February. This decrease is explained by the announcement of a plan to close 12.5GW of coal-fired power plants while cancellation of the corresponding quotas had not been confirmed. Prices were also affected at this stage by anticipation of a “hard Brexit” and the United Kingdom’s possible departure from the EU-ETS system end of 2019.
CO2 prices then progressed strongly, rising to €30.2/t in mid-July level in ten years, boosted by the deferral of Brexit to the end of October. Another downward movement then followed, to €22.8/t in mid-October, and afterwards CO2 prices remained around the €25/t mark until the end of the year.
CO2 emission rights prices
- CO2 - Delivery in December Y+1 in €/t (ICE)
5.1.2.1.4 Fossil fuel prices(2)
| Coal | Oil | Natural gas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average price for 2019 | Average price for 2019 Coal 69.5 | Average price for 2019 Oil 64.2 | Average price for 2019 Natural gas 18.4 |
| Average price variation, 2019/2018 | Average price variation, 2019/2018 Coal -20.1% | Average price variation, 2019/2018 Oil -10.5% | Average price variation, 2019/2018 Natural gas -11.8% |
| Highest price in 2019 | Highest price in 2019 Coal 87.0 | Highest price in 2019 Oil 74.6 | Highest price in 2019 Natural gas 21.8 |
| Lowest price in 2019 | Lowest price in 2019 Coal 56.3 | Lowest price in 2019 Oil 54.9 | Lowest price in 2019 Natural gas 15.9 |
| Closing price, 2019 | Closing price, 2019 Coal 56.4 | Closing price, 2019 Oil 66.0 | Closing price, 2019 Natural gas 16.0 |
| Closing price, 2018 | Closing price, 2018 Coal 85.9 | Closing price, 2018 Oil 53.8 | Closing price, 2018 Natural gas 20.4 |
Coal prices for next-year delivery in Europe stood at an average US$69.5/t in 2019 (-20.1% or -US$17.5/t compared to 2018).
The decline is principally attributable to sluggish demand in Asia, high stocks from the start of the year, and more competition from gas since CO2 prices were much higher than in 2018. In September, coal prices rose briefly under the impetus of a spike in oil prices, and because announcements about the deviations from technical standards noted in Framatome’s component manufacturing processes had led to fears of greater use of thermal plants. In the fourth quarter the price declined again, due to anticipation of mild temperatures and the prospect of temporary coal-fired plant closures in South Korea in the winter.
Oil prices stood at an average US$64.2/bbl for 2019 (-10.5% or -US$7.5/bbl compared to 2018).
Over the year, price movements were mostly driven by the prospect of plentiful supplies and low demand. Focusing on world growth, the market modulated the general downward trend in response to successive announcements about progress on the US-China trade deal.
American shale oil production rose all year, and in September the United States became the world’s biggest producer of oil. Against this influx of oil, the OPEC confirmed at the meetings of 1 July and 6 December that it wanted to support prices by reducing production. This curbed fears about production levels, although several incidents in the Middle East sent prices soaring, particularly on 20 June when an American drone was shot down by Tehran, in July when tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran, and on 14 September when there were attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.
The annual gas contract for next-year delivery in the PEG zone traded at an average €18.4/MWh in 2019 (-11.8% or -€2.5/MWh compared to 2018).
(1) Average ICE prices for the annual contract, Phase III (2013-2020).
(2)Coal: average ICE prices for delivery in Europe (CIF ARA) for the next calendar year (US$/t);Oil: Brent first reference crude oil barrel, IPE index (front month) (US$/barrel);Natural gas: average ICE OTC prices, for delivery starting from October of the following year in France (PEG Nord) (€/MWhg).